Global Estimates for Diabetes Prevalence to Rise Between 2015 – 2040

Global Estimates for Diabetes Prevalence to Rise Between 2015 - 2040Photo by Rachel Park on Unsplash.

A systematic literature review (download link) was conducted by IDF Diabetes Atlas to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. The goal was to produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 to 2040.

From the study:

The global prevalence of diabetes in adults has been increasing over recent decades. In 1964, it was estimated that 30 million people had diabetes. Less than 40 years later, the WHO estimated that there were 171 million people living with diabetes. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) estimated the global prevalence to be 151 million in 2000, 194 million in 2003, 246 million in 2006, 285 million in 2009, 366 million in 2011, and 382 million in 2013. Each estimate was based on the latest data available. The IDF Atlas methodology was substantially updated in 2011 to incorporate an analytic hierarchy process that formalized the methods to prioritize the highest quality data from available sources.

The dramatic increase in diabetes has occurred in all countries, and in rural as well as urban areas. Accurate global, regional, and country-level estimates and projections of diabetes prevalence are necessary for prevention and treatment strategies to be planned and monitored, and to assess progress towards reaching the targets set by the Global Action Plan for Non-Communicable Diseases and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Diabetes Prevalence Estimates 2015 – 2040

Table 1
Global estimates of diabetes prevalence, mortality, health expenditure, impaired glucose
tolerance prevalence and hyperglycaemia in pregnancy prevalence for 2015 and 2040.
NC = Not calculated.

2015 2040
General population
Total world population 7.3 billion 9.0 billion
Adult population (20–79 years) 4.7 billion 6.2 billion
Total live births to women aged 20–49 years 129.4 million NC
Diabetes (20–79 years)
Global prevalence (uncertainty interval) 8.8% (7.2–11.4%) 10.4% (8.5–13.5%)
Number of people with diabetes (uncertainty interval) 415 million (340–536 million) 642 million (521–829 million)
Number of deaths due to diabetes 5.0 million NC
Health expenditure due to diabetes (20–79 years)
Total health expenditure, 2015 USD 673 billion 802 billion
Impaired glucose tolerance (20–79 years)
Global prevalence (uncertainty interval) 6.7% (4.5–12.1%) 7.8% (5.2–13.9%)
Number of people with impaired glucose tolerance 318 million (212–572 million) 481 million (317–856 million)
Hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (20–49 years)
Global prevalence 16.2% of live births NC
Number of live births affected 20.9 million NC
Proportion of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy cases due to gestational diabetes 85.1% NC

Read more articles about diabetes prevention.

Visit the website Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice.

Visit the website for International Diabetes Federation.

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